Big Conclusions from Incomplete Data Are Folly

As the COVID-19 crisis escalated in mid-March, Minnesota Public Radio News Chief Meteorologist Paul Huttner wrote an article comparing everyone’s efforts to predict who would get sick and die to forecasting a storm with a broken weather forecast model.

Mood Music:

Describing the gaping hole in U.S. testing efforts, he wrote:

It’s like one of our weather satellites is down, and we can’t get a clear picture of what the storm looks like from above. We just can’t see the whole storm.

It was an apt analogy then and remains so. Yet we continue to grind our gears over a busted radar and barometer.

Nearly six weeks later, testing is still a massive failure in this country. We still lack the accurate picture needed to build forecasts and make plans to re-open society.

We see an endless array of charts, maps and other data presentations and thousands of articles across the internet that dissect it all in search of clues on how the virus affects the young vs. middle-aged vs. old. There are death statistics for all 50 U.S. states, for Italy, for Spain, and on and on. All this new data, daily.

And without massive testing and contact tracing, sifting through it all and making conclusions are an exercise in futility.

That doesn’t mean the data we have is useless. Every data point offers a lesson that we can use to make smarter decisions — and we have.

But trying to make the big-picture conclusions using data that doesn’t have a solid foundation beneath it? It’s starting to seem like a waste of time and resources.

Truth is, testing and contact tracing will never be where they need to be. There’s not enough personnel, supplies or logistical agility for the former, and the latter is rife with technical glitches. Not to mention the potential for government misuse.

So we’ll never have the broad, solid foundation to put all the other data into the proper context. We’re never going to know the exact number of people around the world sickened with COVID-19. We’ll never know the true death rate.

Perhaps we should make peace with what we don’t know and start figuring out how we can keep the largest number of people as healthy and safe as possible while re-opening businesses, schools and recreation.

Last weekend I read an interesting Wall Street Journal piece by Avik Roy, president of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity and co-author of the foundation’s “A New Strategy for Bringing People Back to Work During Covid-19.” In the essay, Roy notes that we have specific goals we’re trying to make before we go “back to normal,” things like near-universal testing and an approved vaccine. “But,” he writes:

This conventional wisdom has a critical flaw. We’ve taken for granted that our ingenuity can solve almost any problem. But what if, in this case, it can’t? What if we can’t scale up coronavirus testing as quickly as we need to? What if it takes us six or 12 months, instead of three, to identify an effective treatment for Covid-19? What if those who recover from the disease fail to gain immunity and are therefore susceptible to getting reinfected? And what if it takes us years to develop a vaccine?

Such questions can raise fears in us, but these are truth-based fears. We can see, Roy points out, how unrealistically optimistic our goals are. It’s far more likely that we won’t make all our goals. And if we don’t, what then? “Do we prolong the economic shutdown for six months or longer? Do we impose a series of on-and-off stay-at-home orders that could go on for years?”

Roy doesn’t have the answers for how we move forward, but he does offer a starting point I agree with:

Instead of thinking up creative ways to force people to stay home, we should think hard every day about how to bring more people back to work.

Our current analysis paralysis — fixated around data sets that are limited without knowing the bigger picture of who exactly has had the virus, recovered or died from it — is unsustainable.

There’s a way forward. But it’s going to involve us taking a few leaps of faith along the way and tossing aside the broken forecasting tools.

Drawing of people at a conference table. The white man at the head of the table says, "Let's solve this problem by using the big data non of us have the slightest idea what to do with." Copyright marketoonist.com

Why I’m Not Enjoying the Ashley Madison Hack

Because I have a happy marriage and am not the cheating type, I thought I’d enjoy the fallout over the Ashley Madison hack, in which millions of people using the adultery site were outed. One of the outed individuals was reality TV star Josh Duggar, a self-proclaimed devout Christian who preaches the virtues of family values. Everyone likes to see hypocrites fall, right?

Mood music:

https://youtu.be/OZZ9bm_qe9w

I spent a lot of time pondering what I could write in my information security blogs. I could have harped about all the old lessons people failed to learn about how to behave in cyberspace. In the case of Ashley Madison, the lesson is that there’s no such thing as true privacy, that if you use sites like this, a determined hacker will figure out how to break in and expose you.

Then I started to feel dirty about it all.

I had been feeling morally superior to all the apparent cheaters. Once I realized where my head was going, it freaked me out a little and I felt ashamed. Why? Because I’ve done a lot of dumb things in my life, too.

Go through this blog and you’ll find plenty of examples. I’ve lied to my wife. I’ve talked crap about others behind their backs. I’ve done a lot of selfish things and hurt people along the way. I’ve been guilty of thinking I’m better than others.

With these truths in mind, I found it hard to share in the online feeding frenzy.

The Ashley Madison story is replete with casualties. Significant others are learning that they were cheated on, and site users now have to deal with their demons in a very public way. I’m not going to tell people how they should think about this story. I only know how I feel.

Ashley Madison’s slogan is “Life is short. Have an affair.” Life is short. I want to learn some things and be a better person along the way. Not engaging in hypocrisy is a step in the journey.

Ashley Madison Home Page

Vincent Bugliosi Inspired My Work in Journalism, InfoSec

Vincent Bugliosi, the man who prosecuted Charles Manson and his family and then detailed the case in his book Helter Skelter, has died at age 80. Indirectly, I owe some of my career trajectory to him.

Mood music: 

https://youtu.be/0rC3l3niTaE

I’ve chronicled my interest in the Manson case at length in this blog. Those posts capture the mental health issues that led to the crimes, as well as my own OCD-fueled obsession with the case. But Bugliosi’s influence on me is rooted in his best-selling book. I never met the man, though I’ve read Helter Skelter too many times to count and have even visited the scenes of the Tate-Labianca murders. Those who haven’t read it assume the book is all blood and gore.

Far from it.

Read my Manson-related posts in this anthology.

Yes, Bugliosi describes the murder scenes in chilling detail. But the book is mostly about him building the case against Manson and his followers. There’s a lot of rich detail about police and detectives clumsily tainting the crime scenes and working against each other to feed their egos, missing important clues that could have solved the case sooner.

He pieces together the gathering of evidence, the rounding up of witnesses and his uphill battle to convince the jury of the bizarre Helter Skelter motive. Along the way, there’s the endless display of disruptive tactics from defense attorneys and the occasional roadblocks tossed in by the judges, especially the one who presided over the separate trial for Charles “Tex” Watson, Manson’s lead killer.

The book has lessons on just about everything journalists need to know:

  • Police and detective work
  • Politics
  • Court procedure
  • Forensics
  • The importance of thorough research and investigation

I used to push the book on reporters when I was a newspaper editor, especially those covering the cops and courts. It fueled my passion for news gathering and had more than a little to do with my pursuing a writing career.

Even now, as someone working in the information security industry, I get a lot of use from the book. If you look closely at Bugliosi’s gathering of forensics and tireless research into what made the bad guys tick, you see many traits of a good security researcher.

I’m forever grateful to Bugliosi for inspiring me down this path. May he rest in peace.

Vincent Bugliosi On CSpan

Ireland’s Gay Marriage Vote Was Inevitable

Some on social media are surprised Ireland voted so overwhelmingly to legalize gay marriage. One reason may be because Ireland is so predominantly Catholic, and Catholic doctrine says homosexuality is wrong.

As an American Catholic, I think the vote went as it did because more and more Catholics are thinking as I do on this subject.

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My conscience tells me that government has absolutely no business defining what marriage — and, more to the point, love — should be about. The Catholic Church believes it should define what marriage is and the government should support that. I don’t agree with that, either.

I accept the Church’s opinion on gay marriage. I’m part of a union between one man and one woman, just as the Church wants it. But that’s my belief system. I don’t believe in imposing a lifestyle on other people.

There’s this notion that a person wakes up one day and decides being gay is a great lifestyle choice. All the people I’ve known over the years who fought against and hid their sexuality have shown me that’s bullshit. They didn’t get a choice. When they denied who they were, they became slaves to shame, escaping through false personas, drugs, and suicide.

For more on my take on homosexuality, see:
Gay Haters or Just Idiots?
Racists AND Idiots
Depression and Being Gay
One More Thing About Being Depressed and Gay …

No one should be forced to live a lie because of stigmas set down by church and government. No one should be told who and how to love.

I think, quite simply, that there are a lot of people in Ireland — globally, really, — who have had similar experiences with this issue.

So count me among those who are thrilled with the Irish vote.

The marriage equality symbol, with a Black Flag twist
The marriage equality symbol, with a Black Flag twist.

The Good in Baltimore

The top news story last week was about the rioting and looting in Baltimore. The discussion has been full of anger over what many see as thuggery. The violence makes me angry, too.

But there have been many rays of sunshine in Baltimore as well. The good news is there, if you know where to look. Here are some examples.

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“10 Images of the Baltimore Riots You Won’t See on TV” (News.mic)
Missing in all the riot coverage was this story about some brave souls wading into angry crowds to calm things down.

“The part of the Baltimore protests you haven’t seen” (USA Today)
A lot of the protests were peaceful. But in the news world, it only leads if it bleeds or burns.

“Baltimore Communities Come Together After Violent Riots” (People.com)
After the damage, people banded together to clean up the mess and help out their fellow human beings.

“School Was Closed, But This Baltimore Dad Had An Amazing Lesson For His Son” (NPR.org)
A great story about a Dad taking his 5-year-old son on a tour of West Baltimore immediately after the riots.

“Beyond The Headlines, There’s Much More To West Baltimore” (NPR.org)
A rich picture of Baltimore’s poorer neighborhoods, from someone who grew up there.

BALTIMORE, MD - APRIL 28: Volunteers help clean up debris from a CVS pharmacy that was set on fire yesterday during rioting after the funeral of Freddie Gray, on April 28, 2015, in Baltimore, Maryland. Gray, 25, was arrested for possessing a switch blade knife April 12 outside the Gilmor Houses housing project on Baltimore's west side. According to his attorney, Gray died a week later in the hospital from a severe spinal cord injury he received while in police custody. (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)
 Volunteers help clean up debris from a CVS pharmacy that was set on fire yesterday during rioting after the funeral of Freddie Gray, on April 28, 2015, in Baltimore, Maryland.  (Photo by Andrew Burton/Getty Images)

RIP to Haverhill’s “Crazy Mike”

I’m sad to report that the man known around Haverhill as “Crazy Mike” has died. He was found in some bushes along the Main Street side of Pentucket Bank’s Merrimack Street branch Monday morning.

Police aren’t confirming his identity pending an investigation, but yesterday I touched base with his brother, who confirmed it was him.

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I connected with his brother on Facebook a couple years ago, after I wrote some posts criticizing some fellow Haverhill residents for making fun of a mentally ill man. People called him Crazy Mike because as he wandered the streets, he was given to outbursts. But few truly understood or knew him beyond that. Some jerks created a Facebook page dedicated to making fun of the man, whose real name was Michael Nicoloro.

Fortunately, it was taken down after a wave of complaints.

There’s been a lot of debate and speculation regarding Mike’s mental state and how he got that way. Some say it was from his experiences while serving in Vietnam. Others claimed that he’s not a veteran and that he simply chose to live the way he did.

His relatives have confirmed that he was in Vietnam and that he came back with the scars of war. I’m more inclined to believe his relatives than some of the jerks who have written me to dispute the history.

Mike was mentally ill. Regardless of how he got that way, it was sad to see people make fun of him.

In fairness, I think the jerks were a minority. I’ve gotten an avalanche of comments from readers since I started writing about him, and the vast majority of them defended Mike. This one is a good example:

RIP Michael… Thank you for your military service to our country. It’s a shame you were so misunderstood. It’s a shame so many ignorant people know nothing of mental illness. Walk a mile in his shoes folks. Yes he frightened some people but he could not help himself. He was ill. I hope none of you who judge him so harshly ever have to know the confusion, fear & scorn he must have felt all these years. He joined the military a handsome intelligent sane young man & returned a different man. Mental illness is thought to be a biochemical imbalance that causes structural & electrical changes in the brain. Extreme stress can trigger it or contribute to its severity. Why is it so hard for people to empathize?

In announcing Mike’s death, his brother posted a photo on Facebook that should put questions about the man’s military service to rest. It shows a young, strong man in uniform with a look of determination.

I think it’s the best way to remember him.

Michael Nicoloro

Brian Williams and the Line Between Truth-Lie

Brian Williams lied and ought to be fired.

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The NBC Nightly News anchor says he “conflated” events when he told the world he was on a chopper that was shot at during the Iraq War. In fact, he was in another chopper an hour behind. I don’t see how one could possibly misremember something as huge as getting shot at.

As this shitstorm intensifies, we’re hearing about other points where he embellished his storytelling, including his work during Hurricane Katrina.

Williams’s integrity has been compromised. In the news business, where truth is the Holy Grail, this is a fatal, self-inflicted wound.

Yet part of me feels badly for Williams.

He did something a lot of people have done: Taking a true story and adding more color to it over time, to the point where the truth part evaporates. People do that all the time. It usually starts off innocently enough, but with each retelling, an embellishment is added here and there. It’s so subtle that the storyteller isn’t always aware of how carried away they’re getting.

The difference is that Williams was trusted to deliver the truth whenever the cameras rolled.

When most other people embellish, it’s in front of a smaller audience, usually a group of friends. Often the storyteller has had a few drinks. Just as often, people in the group are trying to top the last person with something more amusing or outrageous.

Have I ever done it? I’m sure I have. Because I’m human and get caught up in moments, too.

In this blog I do my best to remember events clearly and truthfully and retell it as honestly as I can. Do I misremember things along the way? Probably. My standard operating procedure is to correct the record when that happens. Because lying is too fucking easy. It takes just a millisecond to cross that line.

Williams is paid to be disciplined and accurate; he didn’t merely get carried away among friends. For that he must pay a price.

But I won’t stop feeling just a little bit badly for him.

Brian Williams, NBC Nightly News file photo

Stop Fussing Over That Belichick Kiss

I’ve said it before: My interest in football is minimal, though my attention perks up a bit when my hometown New England Patriots play the Super Bowl. My focus usually turns to how people behave in the heat of the moment. Whether their team wins or loses, people latch on to the supremely stupid after the big game.

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Sometimes Patriots fans are the worst. After the team lost the Super Bowl a couple years ago, people started picking on quarterback Tom Brady’s wife, supermodel Gisele Bündchen. It happened again last year, after the Pats lost in the playoffs. The suggestion is always that she’s somehow turned Brady into a sissy. Fortunately, from what I can tell, the Pats fans who do this are a small minority.

This time, the most glaring acts of stupidity are in the media. Case in point: the reaction to Patriots coach Bill Belichick getting a smooch from his daughter. News sites went wild about the “unusual” kiss.

Bill Belichick Kisses Daughter After Winning Super Bowl
Photo by Matt Slocum/AP Photo

TotalProSports.com expressed its horror this way:

After winning Super Bowl 49, passions were running high, and the Patriots coach kissed like no one was watching. Only there were a ton of people watching because it was the Super Bowl. And the person he kissed was his daughter, Amanda. But there was SO MUCH passion in that kiss.

The Stir even brought in a family physician to asses the situation. The reaction of Dr. Deborah Gilboa:

I think this is a reach for scandal … Being able to show affection between adult parents and their adult kids is lovely, and it’s great if Bill Belichick has such a positive relationship with his daughter.

Nothing to see here, right? But Stir writer Jenny Erikson couldn’t let it go:

OK … in theory maybe it’s a good idea that parents and their adult children are so close that they kiss on the mouth … but I just can’t see it. I have a very close relationship with my own dad, and kiss him on the cheek almost every time we greet and say goodbye, but on the lips? Never. Not even a little bit. It kind of makes me uncomfortable even writing this paragraph.

She’s entitled to that opinion, of course. I even share her preference for planting parental kisses on the cheek. But she’s making something out of nothing like the others who were scandalized by this.

This father-daughter kiss was no big deal. Parents and adult kids kiss each other on the lips all the time. I don’t see any tongue jamming in that photo. Do you? That would have been a different story altogether.

Tom Brady and his mom also kissed on the lips after the win, but no one is making a big deal out of that. Nor should they.

8932d2b87dbb490f88d02549f4921ed0-8932d2b87dbb490f88d02549f4921ed0-0
David J. Phillip/AP

 

Give it a rest, folks.

Accused Haverhill Church Vandal Needs Help, Not Hate

Over the holidays, there was much outrage over the news that someone stole the Baby Jesus figure from a Nativity scene at Sacred Hearts Parish in Haverhill, leaving a severed pig’s head in its place.

I was among those offended and troubled. It happened on Christmas morning and had all the hallmarks of a hateful act. A lot of people speculated that it was a hate crime. My guess at the time was that it was the work of one or more young punks who needed to be taught a hard lesson.

Yesterday, we learned more about what may have happened.

Mood music:

According to The Eagle-Tribune, police have charged 54-year-old Amarellis Ceremeno — a homeless woman — with the Sacred Hearts vandalism, as well as with the desecration of Iglesia Biblica Bautista (Bible Baptist Church), where she allegedly wrote “666” on the church multiple times.

The anger I felt has been replaced by feelings of pity. The woman reportedly suffers from serious mental illness, and police said she has an obsession with religion.

Early speculation was that someone had butchered a pig specifically so they could leave its head in the Nativity scene. But police told the newspaper that the pig’s head was probably discarded by someone who had cooked a pig for Christmas Eve. Police were reportedly informed that it’s customary for some in the Latino community to roast pigs on Christmas Eve and that Ceremeno may have found the pig’s head in the trash early Christmas Day.

This is a sad story from start to finish.

Fortunately, it looks like police and political leaders are doing their best to withhold judgement. I think we should do the same.

Mayor James Fiorentini told WCVB Channel 5 that the incident illustrates the need for better mental health assistance for homeless residents.

“I know this lady personally, as I’ve indicated to the press before. She’s a frequenter of the mayor’s office, and we hope she gets the help that she needs,” he said.

Mental illness drives people to dark places. I’m proof of that. Fortunately, I’ve been blessed with plenty of help along the way.

May it be the same for Ceremeno.

Amarellis Ceremeno by Paul Bilodeau

Amarellis Ceremeno, 54, of Haverhill, whom police list as homeless, at her appearance in Haverhill District Court last month. Photo by Paul Bilodeau/The Eagle-Tribune

Manson’s Getting Married

When traffic on older posts starts shooting through the roof, it’s usually a sign that something new is happening with the people and events I’ve written about. The latest example: Charles Manson.

Mood music:

It appears that Charlie has obtained a marriage license and plans to wed 26-year-old Afton Elaine Burton, who goes by the name Star. The young lady says she loves Manson because of his environmental activism. She’s apparently willing to look beyond the fact that he masterminded the brutal slaughter of at least seven people.

The Associated Press quoted her as saying, “Y’all can know that it’s true. It’s going to happen. I love him. I’m with him. There’s all kinds of things.”

The AP says Manson won’t be allowed conjugal visits, but Star doesn’t seem bothered by that. She wants to fight for his freedom and says marrying him would allow her to get information not available to non-relatives. “There’s certain things next of kin can do,” she told the AP.

My Facebook feed is full of all kinds of colorful reaction. Some note the insanity of Manson being allowed to marry while same-sex couples can’t tie the knot in some states. One friend jokes that it’s good to see Manson at least respects the sanctity of marriage.

Others express shock that anyone with half a brain would marry the monster.

I’m not shocked. During the bloody summer of 1969, Manson got young  adults to murder for him. He brainwashed and twisted them. Star is just the latest Manson girl. The summer of ’69 may be 45 years in the rearview mirror, but kids are just as susceptible to brainwashing now as they were then. There will always be kids like that.

The big news here is that Manson still has the power to manipulate. He’s 80 and in prison, but he’s still got it.

I’ve written a ridiculous number of posts about Charles Manson. What can I say? I’m a guy given to obsessions, and the Manson case is a big one. If you’ve missed any, here they are again.

The Beatles’ White Album and Charles Manson: A post about the album Charlie made such a big deal about.

Dennis Wilson and the Manson Family: The sad tale of Dennis Wilson, drummer of The Beach Boys and one-time friend of Charles Manson.

I Regret Wearing That Charles Manson T-Shirt: In the early 1990s, Patti Tate, sister of Sharon Tate, was on a public tirade against Guns ‘N’ Roses frontman Axl Rose for going on stage every night wearing a Charles Manson T-shirt. Around the same time, I had my own Manson shirt, worn regularly to freak people out.

Slaying Old Fears in the Hollywood Hills: On a business trip to Los Angeles, I killed some old demons.

Telling the Tate-LaBianca Story: Truth and Embellishment: How accurate is Restless Souls: The Sharon Tate Family’s Account of Stardom, the Manson Murders, and a Crusade for Justice?

Tate-LaBianca, 43 Years Later: A Strange Society of Manson Watchers: I’ve met some interesting people as a result of this Manson obsession.

The Most Important Book Ever Written About Sharon Tate and the Manson Murders: Restless Souls: The Sharon Tate Family’s Account of Stardom, the Manson Murders, and a Crusade for Justice may well be the most important book written on the Manson case.

Helter Skelter: Wherein the author first admits his OCD behavior includes an obsession with the Manson Case.

Charles Manson, age 0, November 14, 2014